SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | North Korea | 3 | -11 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 80.23%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for North Korea had a probability of 6.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.12%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.12%), while for a North Korea win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | North Korea |
80.23% ( 0.07) | 12.94% ( -0.04) | 6.82% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 46.53% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.54% ( 0.07) | 33.46% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.75% ( 0.08) | 55.24% ( -0.09) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.53% ( 0.03) | 6.46% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.83% ( 0.08) | 24.17% ( -0.09) |
| North Korea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.74% ( -0.04) | 50.25% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.16% ( -0.03) | 84.83% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | North Korea |
| 2-0 @ 12.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.65% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 3.45% Total : 80.23% | 1-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.68% Total : 12.94% | 0-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 6.82% |
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