SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles Galaxy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
55.24% ( 0.48) | 22.62% ( 0.23) | 22.13% ( -0.71) |
| Both teams to score 56.11% ( -1.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.58% ( -1.87) | 43.42% ( 1.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.18% ( -1.87) | 65.81% ( 1.87) |
| Los Angeles Galaxy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.4% ( -0.49) | 15.6% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.42% ( -0.92) | 44.58% ( 0.92) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.49% ( -1.68) | 33.51% ( 1.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.85% ( -1.88) | 70.15% ( 1.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.62)2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.6% Total : 55.24% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.23)0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.42)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.27% Total : 22.13% |
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