With the Earthquakes faltering at the same time that LA Galaxy are finding a bit of form, this could prove to be a closer game than many would have been anticipating a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, we have to give the edge to the home side, who could grind out a win by the odd goal in three.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 50.73%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
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