Las Palmas have only lost three times at home this season, while Valencia have just three away victories to their name. Strong cases can be made for both teams to win on Saturday, but we are expecting a very tight game and have had to settle on a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Las Palmas would win this match.
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