Both teams will be missing some important players for this match, but Villarreal will be hit harder in terms of absentees. It would not be a surprise to see the points shared on Tuesday, but we believe that Valencia have enough quality to navigate their way to a narrow success in front of their own supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
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