LDU Quito were comfortably the superior side across the first leg in Chile last week, so we do not see why things would be any different when they have home advantage on their side.
As such, we expect the 2009 winners to comfortably seal their place in the last eight of the Copa Sudamericana.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 71.25%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Nublense had a probability of 9.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.27%) and 3-0 (10.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Nublense win it was 0-1 (4.25%).
0.05) 
-0.18) 
