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Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 4, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Nublense
0 - 1
LDU Quito


Caroca (54')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Guerrero (60')
Ade (38'), Gonzalez (87'), Dominguez (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Audax 0-1 Nublense
Friday, July 21 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Last Game: LDU Quito 3-0 Cesar Vallejo
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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We said: Nublense 1-1 LDU Quito

While the visitors come into the match with a better record in the first half of the season, they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last four away matches and may find it difficult to keep a clean sheet in this one as well. The hosts have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, unbeaten in their last five, and cannot be counted out of the contest just yet. Our feeling is that these sides will cancel each other out by the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Nublense had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Nublense win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for LDU Quito in this match.

Result
NublenseDrawLDU Quito
29.72% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 26.03% (0.00099999999999767 0) 44.25% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.2% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.09% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)51.91% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.34% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)73.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Nublense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.11% (0.0020000000000095 0)31.89% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.67% (0.00099999999999767 0)68.33% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.64% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)23.36% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.67% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)57.33% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Nublense 29.72%
    LDU Quito 44.25%
    Draw 26.03%
NublenseDrawLDU Quito
1-0 @ 8.51% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-1 @ 7.08%
2-0 @ 4.87% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 2.7% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 1.96%
3-0 @ 1.85% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 29.72%
1-1 @ 12.38% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.45%
2-2 @ 5.15%
3-3 @ 0.95%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 10.83%
1-2 @ 9%
0-2 @ 7.88% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 4.36%
0-3 @ 3.82%
2-3 @ 2.49%
1-4 @ 1.59% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.39%
2-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 44.25%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Audax 0-1 Nublense
Friday, July 21 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nublense 0-0 Audax
Thursday, July 13 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Racing 4-0 Nublense
Thursday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Aucas 0-0 Nublense
Thursday, June 8 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nublense 1-1 Flamengo
Thursday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nublense 2-1 Aucas
Tuesday, May 2 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: LDU Quito 3-0 Cesar Vallejo
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: LDU Quito 0-0 Botafogo
Wednesday, June 7 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Magallanes 1-1 LDU Quito
Wednesday, May 24 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Botafogo 0-0 LDU Quito
Friday, May 5 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: LDU Quito 4-0 Magallanes
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cesar Vallejo 1-2 LDU Quito
Wednesday, April 5 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana


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