SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Liberia had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Liberia win was 1-0 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Liberia | Draw | Algeria |
27.4% ( -0.18) | 26.56% ( -0.08) | 46.04% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 49.17% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.85% ( 0.21) | 55.15% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.6% ( 0.18) | 76.39% ( -0.18) |
| Liberia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.63% ( -0.03) | 35.37% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.87% ( -0.03) | 72.13% ( 0.03) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.09% ( 0.22) | 23.91% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.88% ( 0.32) | 58.12% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liberia | Draw | Algeria |
| 1-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.04% Total : 27.4% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.46% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.55% | 0-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.29% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.62% Total : 46.04% |
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