Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 55.28%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 22.88% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 1-2 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.

Result
Lugano	Draw	FC Winterthur
55.28% ( 0.74)	21.85% ( -0.28)	22.88% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 59.84% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.03% (

0.78)

38.97% (

-0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.71% (

0.81)

61.29% (

-0.81)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.94% (

0.5)

14.06% (

-0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.36% (

0.97)

41.64% (

-0.97)

FC Winterthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.62% (

0.05)

30.37% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.43% (

0.05)

66.57% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Lugano 55.28%

FC Winterthur 22.88%

Draw 21.85%

Lugano	Draw	FC Winterthur
2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.38% Total : 55.28%	1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.27% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.85%	1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.93% Total : 22.88%