SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 43.35%. A win for Basel had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
43.35% ( -0.72) | 23.92% ( 0.23) | 32.73% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 60.72% ( -0.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.58% ( -0.94) | 41.42% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.18% ( -0.96) | 63.82% ( 0.96) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.63% ( -0.69) | 19.36% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.85% ( -1.14) | 51.15% ( 1.14) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.3% ( -0.17) | 24.7% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.76% ( -0.23) | 59.23% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.24% Total : 43.35% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.92% | 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.71% Total : 32.73% |
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