SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Winterthur win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Winterthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Winterthur would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Lugano |
41.1% ( -0.22) | 23.82% ( 0.02) | 35.08% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 61.83% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.72% ( -0.07) | 40.28% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.35% ( -0.07) | 62.65% ( 0.07) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.12% ( -0.13) | 19.88% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.01% ( -0.21) | 51.99% ( 0.2) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.16% ( 0.07) | 22.83% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.44% ( 0.11) | 56.56% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.9% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.11% Total : 41.1% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.81% | 1-2 @ 8% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 3.25% Total : 35.08% |
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