SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 36.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Lugano |
36.55% ( -0.31) | 24.47% ( 0.1) | 38.97% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 59.65% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.8% ( -0.52) | 43.2% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.4% ( -0.52) | 65.6% ( 0.52) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.61% ( -0.4) | 23.38% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.63% ( -0.59) | 57.36% ( 0.59) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.86% ( -0.13) | 22.14% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.48% ( -0.19) | 55.52% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Winterthur | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.47% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.17% Total : 36.55% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.47% | 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.81% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.3% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.44% Total : 38.97% |
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