SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
45.59% ( 0.3) | 23.36% ( 0.1) | 31.05% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 61.97% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.55% ( -0.69) | 39.44% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.21% ( -0.73) | 61.79% ( 0.72) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.35% ( -0.16) | 17.64% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.74% ( -0.27) | 48.25% ( 0.27) |
| HJK Helsinki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.25% ( -0.58) | 24.75% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.69% ( -0.81) | 59.31% ( 0.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
| 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 5.31% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.8% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.9% Total : 45.59% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 4.26% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.67% Total : 31.05% |
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