SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 38.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.19%) and 3-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
41.03% ( 0.17) | 20.11% ( -0.05) | 38.86% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 77.18% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.2% ( 0.23) | 20.8% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.77% ( 0.32) | 39.23% ( -0.32) |
| Manchester City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.2% ( 0.15) | 11.8% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.99% ( 0.32) | 37.01% ( -0.32) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.5% ( 0.06) | 12.5% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.51% ( 0.12) | 38.49% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 7% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.4% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.97% Total : 41.03% | 2-2 @ 7.28% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)4-4 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.11% | 1-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 5.05% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.04)0-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 3.6% Total : 38.86% |
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