SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.62%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.28% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.22%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
21.28% ( 0.7) | 19.1% ( 0.27) | 59.62% ( -0.97) |
| Both teams to score 67.9% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.42% ( -0.33) | 27.58% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.79% ( -0.41) | 48.22% ( 0.41) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.84% ( 0.38) | 25.16% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.12% ( 0.52) | 59.88% ( -0.51) |
| Manchester City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.73% ( -0.31) | 9.27% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.68% ( -0.76) | 31.32% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.22% Total : 21.28% | 1-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.54% Total : 19.1% | 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 7.22% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.06)0-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 4.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 4.29% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 3.11% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 2.96% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 2.04% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.08)2-5 @ 1.41% ( -0.04)3-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.3% Total : 59.62% |
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