SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 19.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.31%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
59.15% ( 0.51) | 21.26% ( -0.17) | 19.59% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 56.81% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.36% ( 0.3) | 40.63% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.98% ( 0.31) | 63.01% ( -0.32) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.58% ( 0.25) | 13.42% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.63% ( 0.51) | 40.37% ( -0.51) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.61% ( -0.17) | 34.38% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.91% ( -0.18) | 71.08% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.36% Total : 59.15% | 1-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.05% Total : 19.59% |
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