Marseille have been on a poor run but they remain solid on home soil, only behind two sides for points won at home. Nice have been inconsistent in the past two months and have not looked like the same side that started the league. Considering these factors, we think that this will be a close affair and we are expecting a draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Nice had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Nice win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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