Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
