SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Monza had a probability of 29.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Monza win was 1-0 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monza | Draw | Napoli |
29.97% ( 0.17) | 24.85% ( 0.01) | 45.18% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 56.15% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.17% ( 0.03) | 46.84% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.91% ( 0.03) | 69.09% ( -0.03) |
| Monza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.88% ( 0.14) | 29.12% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.95% ( 0.17) | 65.05% ( -0.17) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.22% ( -0.07) | 20.79% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.56% ( -0.11) | 53.44% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Monza | Draw | Napoli |
| 1-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 29.97% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.85% | 0-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 45.18% |
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