Napoli have been below their best on home soil this term, while Atalanta rank just 10th for points won on the road in Serie A and are enduring a sticky patch. Therefore, just a second draw in 18 games between these teams in Naples could be on the cards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 51.3%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 24.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.01) 
