SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Nottingham Forest Under-21s had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Morecambe | Draw | Nottingham Forest Under-21s |
46.18% ( -0.04) | 23.52% ( -0.05) | 30.3% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 60.97% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.43% ( 0.26) | 40.57% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.04% ( 0.27) | 62.95% ( -0.27) |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.15% ( 0.08) | 17.85% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.39% ( 0.15) | 48.61% ( -0.15) |
| Nottingham Forest Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.22% ( 0.18) | 25.77% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.28% ( 0.24) | 60.72% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Morecambe | Draw | Nottingham Forest Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.93% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.78% Total : 46.18% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 7.29% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.43% Total : 30.3% |
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