Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
