Although Morecambe would have taken some confidence from their recent 3-3 home draw against Colchester, they have lost all three of their away league games this season, and we think that they will experience more disappointment on their travels when they face a Fleetwood side that have won three of their five competitive home games this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 25.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
-0.22) 
0.35) 
