Moreirense have got into the habit of keeping teams out and picking up points regularly, especially against those below them, and while it may be gritty, the hosts should get the three points here.
Seven clean sheets in 10 games suggests Casa Pia may find it difficult to break Moreirense down, and their meagre 14 goals so far this season does not provide much more encouragement.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 50.92%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 24.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.02) 
