SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Portimonense |
49.53% ( -1.54) | 25.29% ( 0.12) | 25.18% ( 1.42) |
| Both teams to score 51.14% ( 1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.29% ( 0.69) | 51.7% ( -0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.52% ( 0.6) | 73.48% ( -0.59) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.11% ( -0.37) | 20.89% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.4% ( -0.59) | 53.6% ( 0.59) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( 1.64) | 35.36% ( -1.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( 1.67) | 72.12% ( -1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.46) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.47)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.3)3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 49.53% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.28% | 0-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.31)0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.01% Total : 25.18% |
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