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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Estadio Nacional do Zimpeto
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Mozambique
2 - 1
Guinea-Bissau

Guimaraes (5'), Macamo (73')
Guimaraes (38'), Ernan (90')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Balde (24')
Balde (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Eswatini
Thursday, September 5 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Mozambique 2-1 Guinea-Bissau

If history is anything to go by, then we can expect an entertaining clash in this one with both teams looking to build on their opening results.   We are also tipping Mozambique to give their fans reason to celebrate by claiming all three points come the sound of the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Mozambique in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mozambique.

Result
MozambiqueDrawGuinea-Bissau
40.02% (0.303 0.3) 27.49% (-0.159 -0.16) 32.49% (-0.149 -0.15)
Both teams to score 48.85% (0.42 0.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.28% (0.547 0.55)56.71% (-0.55399999999999 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.33% (0.438 0.44)77.67% (-0.443 -0.44)
Mozambique Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.27% (0.42999999999999 0.43)27.73% (-0.436 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.7% (0.549 0.55)63.29% (-0.555 -0.56)
Guinea-Bissau Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.6% (0.17700000000001 0.18)32.4% (-0.183 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.08% (0.201 0.2)68.91% (-0.20700000000001 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Mozambique 40.02%
    Guinea-Bissau 32.48%
    Draw 27.48%
MozambiqueDrawGuinea-Bissau
1-0 @ 11.52% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 8.33% (0.068 0.07)
2-0 @ 7.39% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.56% (0.072 0.07)
3-0 @ 3.16% (0.049 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.01% (0.05 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.14% (0.036 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.01% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 40.02%
1-1 @ 12.98% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 8.98% (-0.193 -0.19)
2-2 @ 4.69% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 27.48%
0-1 @ 10.12% (-0.16 -0.16)
1-2 @ 7.32% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.71% (-0.064 -0.06)
1-3 @ 2.75% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.14% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 32.48%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Mali 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Comoros 2-2 Mozambique (1-3 pen.)
Sunday, July 7 at 11am in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Mozambique 0-0 Namibia (2-4 pen.)
Friday, July 5 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Mozambique 3-1 Botswana
Tuesday, July 2 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Mozambique 0-0 Eswatini
Saturday, June 29 at 11am in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: South Africa 1-1 Mozambique
Wednesday, June 26 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Eswatini
Thursday, September 5 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-1 Egypt
Monday, June 10 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-0 Ethiopia
Thursday, June 6 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, January 22 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Eq Guinea 4-2 Guinea-Bissau
Thursday, January 18 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Ivory Coast 2-0 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 13 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations


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