SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Equatorial Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
40.92% ( -0.02) | 29.32% ( -0.08) | 29.76% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 42.91% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.31% ( 0.3) | 63.69% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.03% ( 0.21) | 82.97% ( -0.21) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.38% ( 0.14) | 30.62% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.14% ( 0.16) | 66.86% ( -0.16) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.85% ( 0.25) | 38.15% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.08% ( 0.24) | 74.92% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 13.82% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.23% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.32% Total : 40.91% | 1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.68% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.32% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.64% Total : 29.75% |
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