Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 51.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Botswana win it was 0-1 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mozambique would win this match.
2.43) 
-2.47) 
