SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional Potosi win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional Potosi win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional Potosi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional Potosi | Draw | Fortaleza |
42.09% ( -1.07) | 24.77% ( 0.25) | 33.13% ( 0.82) |
| Both teams to score 57.86% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.78% ( -0.89) | 45.22% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.44% ( -0.86) | 67.56% ( 0.86) |
| Nacional Potosi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.49% ( -0.86) | 21.51% ( 0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.43% ( -1.35) | 54.56% ( 1.35) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.72% ( 0.07) | 26.28% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.61% ( 0.1) | 61.39% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional Potosi | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.54% Total : 42.09% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.76% | 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.3)0-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.26% Total : 33.13% |
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