SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Club Libertad |
40.17% ( 1.75) | 27.14% ( -0.1) | 32.68% ( -1.64) |
| Both teams to score 49.96% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.66% ( 0.13) | 55.34% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.45% ( 0.1) | 76.55% ( -0.1) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73% ( 1.04) | 27% ( -1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.65% ( 1.34) | 62.35% ( -1.34) |
| Club Libertad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.44% ( -1.03) | 31.56% ( 1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.04% ( -1.2) | 67.96% ( 1.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Club Libertad |
| 1-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 7.31% ( 0.38)3-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.05% Total : 40.17% | 1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.14% | 0-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 7.42% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.88% Total : 32.68% |
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