SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
35.54% ( -0.28) | 27.7% ( 0.09) | 36.76% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 48.71% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.89% ( -0.34) | 57.11% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.01% ( -0.27) | 77.99% ( 0.27) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.42% ( -0.34) | 30.58% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.19% ( -0.41) | 66.81% ( 0.41) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.18% ( -0.05) | 29.82% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.09% ( -0.06) | 65.91% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.54% | 1-1 @ 13.07% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 11.03% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.76% |
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