SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
56.06% ( 3.29) | 24.83% ( -0.87) | 19.1% ( -2.42) |
| Both teams to score 45.02% ( -0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.07% ( 0.51) | 55.93% ( -0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.96% ( 0.41) | 77.04% ( -0.41) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.09% ( 1.54) | 19.9% ( -1.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.96% ( 2.43) | 52.03% ( -2.43) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.2% ( -2.34) | 43.8% ( 2.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.04% ( -2) | 79.95% ( 1.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 14.07% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 11.35% ( 0.82)2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.7)3-1 @ 5.05% ( 0.28)4-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.38)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.2)Other @ 3.51% Total : 56.05% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( -0.44) 0-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.62% Total : 24.82% | 0-1 @ 7.2% ( -0.63) 1-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.51)0-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.48)1-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.76% Total : 19.1% |
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