SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 15 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
| 41.09% | 27.1% | 31.81% |
| Both teams to score 49.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.61% | 55.39% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.4% | 76.59% |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.48% | 26.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.28% | 61.72% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.81% | 32.19% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.32% | 68.67% |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 11.33% 2-1 @ 8.52% 2-0 @ 7.52% 3-1 @ 3.77% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.13% Total : 41.09% | 1-1 @ 12.84% 0-0 @ 8.54% 2-2 @ 4.83% Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.1% | 0-1 @ 9.68% 1-2 @ 7.28% 0-2 @ 5.48% 1-3 @ 2.75% 0-3 @ 2.07% 2-3 @ 1.83% Other @ 2.72% Total : 31.81% |
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