Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.