SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 51.71%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.66%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
23.27% ( 0.05) | 25.02% ( 0.01) | 51.71% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 49.95% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.71% ( 0.02) | 52.28% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.02% ( 0.01) | 73.98% ( -0.01) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.6% ( 0.06) | 37.39% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.82% ( 0.06) | 74.17% ( -0.06) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.78% ( -0.02) | 20.21% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.46% ( -0.03) | 52.53% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.53% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.68% Total : 23.27% | 1-1 @ 11.88% 0-0 @ 7.56% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 25.01% | 0-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.66% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.06% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.49% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.02% ( -0)2-4 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 51.7% |
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