SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.41%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.99%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
22.9% ( -0.39) | 25.69% ( 0.09) | 51.41% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 47.62% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.86% ( -0.66) | 55.14% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.61% ( -0.55) | 76.39% ( 0.55) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.66% ( -0.74) | 39.34% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.96% ( -0.7) | 76.04% ( 0.7) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.51% ( -0.14) | 21.49% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.47% ( -0.22) | 54.53% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.42% Total : 22.9% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 9.99% ( 0.17)1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.12% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.16% Total : 51.4% |
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