SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 63.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Palermo had a probability of 16.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Palermo win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Palermo |
63.39% ( 0.16) | 20.55% ( -0.02) | 16.06% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 52.14% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.61% ( -0.15) | 43.39% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.22% ( -0.15) | 65.78% ( 0.15) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.96% | 13.04% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.41% ( -0) | 39.59% ( 0.01) |
| Palermo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.96% ( -0.26) | 40.04% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.31% ( -0.24) | 76.69% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Palermo |
| 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 10.63% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.74% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0)Other @ 3.15% Total : 63.38% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.55% | 0-1 @ 4.78% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.9% Total : 16.06% |
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