Not only do the hosts have momentum heading into Sunday's final, Ivory Coast also have the physical edge on the Super Eagles, pointing to a marginal win for the Elephants, who have much more in the tank for the decider.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 49.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Ivory Coast had a probability of 22.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Ivory Coast win it was 0-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.
