SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 50.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Ivory Coast had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Ivory Coast win it was 0-1 (8.32%).
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Ivory Coast |
50.36% ( 0.09) | 26.29% ( 0.15) | 23.35% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 46.45% ( -0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.07% ( -0.71) | 56.93% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.16% ( -0.57) | 77.84% ( 0.58) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.31% ( -0.26) | 22.69% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.66% ( -0.39) | 56.34% ( 0.39) |
| Ivory Coast Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.08% ( -0.62) | 39.92% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.42% ( -0.58) | 76.58% ( 0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Ivory Coast |
| 1-0 @ 13.43% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.78% Total : 50.36% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.69% Total : 26.28% | 0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.36% Total : 23.35% |
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