Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 9, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Form, Standings, Stats
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We said: Olimpia 2-1 Atletico Nacional
The onus is largely on Olimpia to make home advantage count and confirm their place in the knockout round, so we expect them to be fully up for this one. We can also see the hosts emerging victorious come the end of the 90 minutes.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.
| Result |
| Olimpia | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
42.89% ( 0.21) | 27.61% ( 0.05) | 29.49% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 47.37% ( -0.25) |
| 41.94% ( -0.26) | 58.05% ( 0.26) |
| 21.26% ( -0.21) | 78.73% ( 0.2) |
| 73.2% ( -0.01) | 26.8% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.91% ( -0.01) | 62.09% ( 0.01) |
| 64.71% ( -0.34) | 35.28% ( 0.34) |
