Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for Pau had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Saint-Etienne in this match.
0.04) 
-0.06) 
