Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 61.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Pau had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Pau win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
-0.61) 
0.23) 
