Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 51.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 23.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
1.51) 
-0.69) 
