This is arguably the biggest game of the season for Portimonense, who will know that anything less than three points will likely see them end the season in the relegation playoff, or worse. Unfortunately for the hosts, they are facing a Rio Ave side that are unbeaten in 10 league games, holding the likes of Sporting and Braga to draws in that time.
This should be an intriguing contest, but we feel both sides will have to settle for a point apiece at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 47.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 25.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.16%) and 1-2 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.72) 
0.32) 
