SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
41.28% ( 0.13) | 26.18% ( 0.05) | 32.54% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 52.95% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.49% ( -0.26) | 51.51% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.69% ( -0.23) | 73.31% ( 0.23) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.35% ( -0.05) | 24.66% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.82% ( -0.07) | 59.18% ( 0.08) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.27% ( -0.24) | 29.73% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.21% ( -0.3) | 65.79% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.07% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.42% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 2.63% Total : 41.28% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.18% | 0-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.41% Total : 32.54% |
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