Considering Estudiantes Merida have already been eliminated from the competition, they may not be as motivated as their opponents, who still have a chance of qualifying for the next round.
As such, we expect San Lorenzo to eke out a victory, but given their recent struggles in front of goal, it is unlikely to be a high-scoring game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 72.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Estudiantes Merida had a probability of 8.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.49%) and 3-0 (10.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Estudiantes Merida win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.
-0.11) 
0.07) 
