San Lorenzo will be targeting three points - and ideally a winning margin of at least two goals - so that they head into the final matchday with their destiny in their own hands in terms of remaining in the Copa Sudamericana.
While we think that they should be able to edge to a marginal victory, they may still be relying on a favour from Fortaleza against Palestino on the final day.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 54.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 19.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Palestino win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.02) 
