Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
0.41) 
-0.03) 
