Shrewsbury will certainly be wounded by their heavy midweek defeat, but with home advantage back on their side against a Carlisle team in the midst of a rut, we fancy them to bounce back on Saturday and come out on top.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Shrewsbury Town in this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
