Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 49.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
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