SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.89%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Zambia |
26.66% ( 0.4) | 26.56% ( 0.58) | 46.78% ( -0.98) |
| Both teams to score 48.63% ( -1.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.4% ( -1.95) | 55.6% ( 1.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.24% ( -1.62) | 76.76% ( 1.62) |
| Sierra Leone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.77% ( -0.72) | 36.22% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.99% ( -0.74) | 73.01% ( 0.75) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.25% ( -1.28) | 23.75% ( 1.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.1% ( -1.88) | 57.9% ( 1.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sierra Leone | Draw | Zambia |
| 1-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 6.38% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 2.16% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.9% Total : 26.66% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.63)2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 12.36% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 8.89% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.33% ( -0.26)0-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.18)1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.63% Total : 46.77% |
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